AGP Executive Report

Counterterrorism: Nigeria and the U.S. kept up the pressure in the Lake Chad Basin with fresh airstrikes targeting ISWAP/ISIS positions after the high-profile killing of ISIS’s second-in-command, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki—while Nigeria insists no U.S. troops were on the ground, only intelligence and operational support. Security & accountability: The week also surfaced mounting concern over civilian harm from Nigerian air operations, with reports of market bombings that sparked investigations and public outcry. Infrastructure & trade: Cameroon finally unlocked long-stalled road progress—CFA130.4B secured for the Ebolowa-Kribi highway after a 15-year delay—plus a Chad-Cameroon shippers deal aimed at cutting cargo delays via better corridor logistics. France-Africa politics: Macron’s “Pan-Africanist” pitch landed in Nairobi amid commentary that France is shifting away from its shrinking Francophone footprint as Russia and China fill the vacuum. Media & culture: RFI Hausa announced a Grand Kano festival to spotlight Kannywood veterans, tying cultural memory to international broadcasting.

Cameroon Infrastructure Breakthrough: After a 15-year logjam, Cameroon has secured a CFA130.4B loan (UKEF-backed via Standard Chartered) to revive the Ebolowa–Akom II–Kribi highway, with total funding now CFA138.2B—finally turning a long-promised corridor into a real trade artery. Counterterrorism Escalation: In Nigeria’s northeast, US and Nigerian forces launched fresh airstrikes against ISIS/ISWAP targets in the Lake Chad Basin, days after the high-profile killing of ISIS second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Minuki—while Nigeria insists no US troops were on the ground, only intelligence and operational support. Security Funding Focus: Nigeria’s Defence leadership is pushing stronger regional coordination to tackle increasingly sophisticated terror financing networks. Humanitarian Partnership: UNHCR marked 10 years of partnership with KFAED, highlighting longer-term support for displaced people across multiple crises, including Chad. Business & Trade Corridor: Cameroon and Chad shippers’ groups signed a cooperation deal aimed at cutting cargo delays and modernising the Douala–Kribi/N’Djamena route.

Lake Chad Insurgency: A pre-dawn assault on a Nigerian Special Forces training school in Buni Yadi, Yobe State, killed 17 police trainees, underscoring how fast militants can strike even at fortified sites. US–Nigeria Counterterrorism: The week’s biggest headline is the joint operation that killed ISIS’s global second-in-command, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, but details are still being fought over—Nigeria says the US provided intelligence and support, not ground troops. Aftershocks on the Ground: In the same Borno region, six suspected ISWAP bomb-makers died when an IED they were assembling detonated early, a reminder that insurgent networks keep losing people to their own devices. Terror Financing Focus: Nigeria’s National Defence College is pushing stronger regional coordination to tackle increasingly sophisticated terror funding channels. Policy & Society: In the UK, Reform’s housing-and-migration messaging is heating up, while a Lancet rename of PCOS to PMOS is reigniting debate on women’s health diagnosis and stigma.

ISIS Leadership Strike: Trump and Nigeria’s Tinubu confirmed the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as ISIS’s global second-in-command, in a joint US-Nigerian operation in Borno’s Lake Chad region—while Nigeria later insisted US forces provided intelligence and support, not ground troops. Aftershock in Borno: In the same week, six suspected ISWAP bomb-makers died after an IED detonated prematurely in Marte, including a suspected explosives expert, Abu Umar—another blow to the group’s local bomb supply. Security Narrative Clash: The fast-moving claims and later corrections over who did what on the ground are now driving fresh scrutiny of the operation’s details. Migration Pressure (UK-France): Separate from the security headlines, reports say smugglers are running a “reverse flow” across the Channel, moving migrants from the UK into France for seasonal labour demand. Sports Draw: AfCON PAMOJA 2027 group qualifiers are set to be drawn Tuesday in Cairo, with 48 nations split into 12 groups.

Counterterrorism Shock: Nigeria and the U.S. say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s “global second-in-command,” in a joint strike in Borno’s Lake Chad region—while Nigeria later clarified the U.S. role was intelligence and support, not boots on the ground. On-the-ground Fallout: Hours earlier, six suspected ISWAP bomb makers died when an IED they were assembling detonated prematurely in Marte, a blow to the group’s explosives network along the Marte–Kerenoa–Wulgo corridor. Security Messaging Clash: Trump framed the mission as “American forces and Nigeria,” but Abuja’s defense officials pushed back on the details, underscoring how public narratives can diverge from operational reality. Migration Pressure Points: Separate reporting flags a “reverse flow” smuggling pattern across the English Channel, with gangs moving people into France from the UK—showing how trafficking routes adapt fast when borders tighten. Regional Context: The week’s focus keeps circling Lake Chad and Borno, where ISIS/ISWAP pressure remains high and local security wins are still fragile.

Counterterror Strike: Nigeria and the US say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s global “second-in-command,” in a joint operation in the Lake Chad Basin, with Trump calling it “flawlessly executed” and Tinubu praising it as effective collaboration—while Defence HQ says al-Minuki ran key functions like media, economic warfare, and weapons/drone development. On-the-Ground Fallout: In Borno’s Marte area, an ISWAP IED reportedly detonated prematurely, killing six bomb-makers including a suspected specialist named Abu Umar, a reminder that insurgent networks can still be disrupted from within. Migration Watch: IOM reports irregular migration flows from Libya fell about 17% in Q1 2026, though arrivals via Libya’s western borders rose as job demand shifted. Business/Trade Context: Separate coverage highlights China’s growing pull in global trade and investment, underscoring how security and economic routes keep reshaping the Sahel and beyond.

Counterterrorism: The U.S. and Nigeria say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s global No. 2, in a coordinated air-and-ground raid in Borno’s Lake Chad Basin, with no U.S. casualties reported; Nigeria says the strike hit a fortified, intelligence-led hideout in Metele and also removed several lieutenants. Terror setback at ground level: Separately, six suspected ISWAP bomb-makers died when an IED they were assembling detonated early in Marte, Borno—an apparent blow to local bomb-making capacity. Regional security context: The operation is being framed as a major step in the evolving fight across the Lake Chad/Sahel corridor, where ISIS-linked networks have been adapting. Trade and geopolitics (background): A separate week’s read highlights how China has overtaken the U.S. as the top goods trading partner for most countries—while only a few African states still trade more with America than China.

UK Politics: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson became the first Cabinet minister to back Andy Burnham’s return, while also refusing to rule out a future prime minister bid—adding fresh heat to Labour’s leadership turmoil after bruising local results. Culture/Entertainment: “Yellowstone” is back in spirit with “Dutton Ranch,” but the franchise’s post–Kevin Costner hangover is still the big question as casting for the next James Bond moves forward under Amazon MGM. Africa Business & Trade: Chad and Cameroon’s push to modernize transit corridors and port/customs processes is back in focus, while Cameroon’s state-led takeover of Société Générale’s local stake signals a wider shift as European banks retreat. Sahel Security & Climate: Arewa youths say Nigeria is regaining stability; in the Lake Chad Basin, young climate advocates are shifting from emergency relief toward long-term adaptation. Everyday Economy: Florida polling keeps Republicans ahead, and multiple stories underline how high costs are squeezing home repairs and travel budgets.

Security & Stability: Nigeria’s Arewa Youth Assembly says terrorist and criminal groups no longer control any territory, praising service chiefs for “visible and coordinated gains” and claiming intelligence-led, joint operations are pushing Boko Haram/ISWAP and bandit networks back in the North-East and North-West. Regional Trade & Logistics: Chad is leaning hard into corridor reform—Cameroon and CAR shippers and transport ministers met in N’Djamena to cut transit delays on the Transcameroon route, with calls for simpler customs steps, digital trade, and tighter port coordination. Tourism Push (Sahel): Chad and Mauritania are bucking the wider Sahel trend with renewed visitor interest, helped by easier e-visa access and new tour products aimed at places like Ennedi Plateau. Business/Industry: Moroccan billionaire Anas Sefrioui sold his French cement plant to focus on Africa’s faster-growing CIMAF network, citing Europe’s cost and emissions pressure. AfCFTA Momentum: AfCFTA’s Wamkele Mene urged deeper private-sector involvement, spotlighting tools like e-Tariff and PAPSS to make trade rules actually work.

Vinyl Industry Buzz: Acoustic Sounds is turning 40 this fall with a four-day “Vinyl Summit” in October—tours, a record fair, live music, and a grand finale at Stiefel Theatre featuring blues legend Taj Mahal. Lake Chad Climate Action: Young advocates in the Lake Chad Basin are shifting from emergency relief to longer-term adaptation, after the lake has reportedly lost over 90% of its water surface. Security Flashpoints (DRC/Somalia/Sudan): M23 has abandoned gains in eastern DRC, Somalia’s government and opposition are in talks ahead of a May 15 political deadline, and Sudan’s SAF is stepping up drone strikes against RSF leadership and infrastructure. Health & Trade Pressure: Southwest Nigeria is flagged as the epicentre of a vast counterfeit consumer goods economy, while Chad–Cameroon–CAR logistics forums push transit corridor reforms to cut delays. Africa–France Reset: Macron’s Nairobi summit is pitching “sovereign equality” and €23bn in pledges, but the debate over France’s legacy is still loud.

France-Africa Reset Sparks Backlash: At Kenya’s Africa Forward Summit, Macron declared “We are the true Pan-Africanists,” a line that instantly lit up pan-African debate over France’s colonial legacy, even as he pitched a €23bn investment push and “sovereign equality.” Sudan’s War Turns More Lethal: The UN warns drone strikes drove over 80% of civilian deaths in Sudan’s first four months of 2026, with Kordofan hit hardest. Cameroon Moves to Control Banking: Cameroon completed its $230m purchase of Société Générale’s majority stake, taking ~84% control and renaming the bank—an example of European pullbacks and state-led financial takeovers spreading regionwide. Regional Trade Gets a Logistics Boost: Chad, Cameroon and CAR are pushing transit reforms on the Transcameroon corridor to cut delays and bottlenecks. Security on the Ground: Yobe recruited 1,886 forest guards to plug gaps in anti-terror operations near Niger. Haiti Intervention Watch: MSF says gang fighting forced evacuation and suspended hospital operations, while Chad’s role is framed as part of a wider external security model.

Border Security Boost (Yobe): Yobe State has recruited 1,886 forest guards for border communities near Niger, aiming to plug gaps exploited by Boko Haram and ISWAP-linked fighters and to support Nigeria’s Operation Hadin Kai, local hunters, and other agencies. France-Africa Reset (Nairobi): France’s Africa Forward Summit in Kenya pushed a “partnership of equals” pitch, with Macron promising major investment pledges, while the coverage flags the old colonial baggage still shaping perceptions. Chad Trade & Logistics: Cameroon is spotlighting port reforms and transit facilitation through the Transcameroon corridor to strengthen Chad and CAR trade, with ministers meeting in N’Djamena. AfCFTA Push: AfCFTA’s chief is urging deeper private-sector involvement to turn the trade deal into real intra-African business activity. Community & Digital Growth: Qatar Charity backed women vegetable vendors in N’Djamena with stalls and starter stock, while a new nonprofit says it will build free church websites across Africa.

Africa-France Reset: Macron defended his “partnership of equals” pitch in Nairobi, pointing to investment, security deals, vaccine tech transfer and artefact restitution as France tries to rebuild influence after Sahel setbacks. Nairobi Summit Watch: The Africa Forward Summit closed with €23bn in pledges, while South Africa skipped the head-of-state level—Paris says it’s scheduling, not politics. Chad & Regional Trade: In N’Djamena, Chad, Cameroon and CAR pushed transit reforms on the Transcameroon Corridor to cut delays and bottlenecks. Security Build-Out: ECOWAS is moving to set up a regional counterterror force, with financing flagged as the make-or-break issue. Sudan Pressure on UAE: A fresh push questions UAE backing for Sudan’s RSF, with allegations of arms routes via Chad. Local Business & Jobs: Qatar Charity backed 100 women vendors in N’Djamena with stalls and starter stock, aiming to lift household incomes and food-safety conditions.

Sahel Security & External Influence: A new analysis argues Chad is being used as the “armed wing” of a low-visibility U.S.-led strategy, with the Haiti deployment framed as force projection packaged through UN and “international cooperation” language. Humanitarian Pressure: In Haiti, Doctors Without Borders says clashes forced evacuation and suspension of operations at its Cité Soleil hospital, while the UN warns staff to avoid roads near the airport as gang violence disrupts aid delivery. Trade & Logistics: Chad, Cameroon, and CAR are pushing transit reforms on the Transcameroon Corridor, aiming to cut delays and bottlenecks that hit landlocked trade. Women’s Economic Lift: Qatar Charity’s project in N’Djamena equips 100 women vegetable vendors with stalls and starter stock, moving them from informal work toward steadier income. Private Sector Push for AfCFTA: AfCFTA’s Wamkele Mene urges business leaders to drive implementation, spotlighting tools like the e-Tariff Book, adjustment support, and PAPSS payments.

Africa–France Summit: In Nairobi, President William Ruto and Emmanuel Macron opened the “Africa Forward” summit, pitching a “win-win” partnership built on sovereign equality and co-investment—not aid or extraction—while France tries to reset its image after losing influence in parts of West Africa. Sahel Security Debate: A fresh wave of analysis argues France is still shaping instability in the Sahel by exploiting minority conflicts, as critics point to the region’s ongoing cycle of attacks and coups. Mali Violence Focus: Separate reporting highlights major militant strikes across northern Mali and the capital region, underscoring how fast violence is spreading beyond one hotspot. Business Watch: Super Group (SGHC) posted record Q1 results, with Africa revenue up 33% and guidance reaffirmed, signaling continued momentum in sports and casino wagering. Humanitarian Pressure: Haiti’s gang fighting is disrupting clinics and forcing evacuations, while Nigeria’s Cardinal Onaiyekan warns poverty and governance failures are deepening “silent violence.”

France-Africa Reset: Macron is in Nairobi pushing the Africa Forward Summit as a “partnership of equals,” with energy transition, peace and security, and financial reform on the agenda—while the subtext is clear: France wants new allies after losing influence in parts of West Africa. Haiti Business Shock: Fresh gang attacks in Haiti’s Lower Artibonite have killed at least eight and forced evacuations, including a hospital shutdown—businesses are getting squeezed as residents flee and the UN gang crackdown drags. Climate Adaptation Gap: A new push argues care services must be built into National Adaptation Plans and NDCs, warning that heat, drought and floods hit the most vulnerable hardest when health and support systems aren’t planned. Energy Debate: Africa is being urged to break “fossil fuel entrapment,” with a report saying oil promises haven’t delivered jobs or poverty relief. Congo Oil Update: Perenco says it boosted output at Tchibouela East in Congo-Brazzaville and is starting another drilling push at Masseko.